My write up this week, and for the foreseeable future can be found at www.oddyoddyoddy.com click on Bet Detective in the left hand menu.
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Sheff Wed @ $3.0
Small bets at v big odds on Doncaster, Yeovil and Barnsley. Normally i’d be having full bets on these but they just aren’t winning this season. The bottom teams in the Championship have significantly poorer away records than in previous seasons.
Bradford @ $3.15
Crawley to win 1-0 @ $7.50 and 2-0 @ $13
Peterboro @ $4.33
Small bet on Colchester @ $13
Exeter @ $4
Wellington @ $3.8
Melbourne Victory @ $5.5
Perth @ $9.0
The A League has gone well this season with 28.56 units profit from just 36 bets.
As usual i see most value on the underdogs.
Wellington visit the Newcastle Jets who look vulnerable having won 3 of 11 at home this season. Wellington’s form has dipped slightly there’s no doubt but they were unlucky not to beat Perth last week and are capable of excellent performances away from home. They have already beaten the Jets 3-2 a few weeks ago + WSW and Central Coast on their travels.
Melbourne Victory come off the back of a battling win in the Asian Champions League on Tuesday where they won despite being dominated in most stat categories in the match. I’m happy to side with the Victory with the best striker in the league Besart Berisha suspended for the Roar after being sent off last weekend.
I can’t resist a small bet on Perth at Western Sydney at $9.0+ despite them only having won once away from home all season and never having scored more than once. Have i put you off yet? There are 2 reasons to oppose WSW. They have only drawn their last 3 at home in the A League and they played in a tough match on Wednesday in the ACL where they only had 30% of possession and will have done a whole lot of ball chasing.
Barnsley @ $3.45
Blackburn @ $4.30
Ipswich (draw no bet) @ $3.0
Charlton @ $3.40
Doncaster @ $3.40
Yeovil @ $3.27
Barnsley lost their last match at home to all conquering Leicester but had won their previous 2 at home against Forest and Millwall. Barnsley have won 5 and lost 6 of their 18 home matches and Bournemouth have won 5 and lost 8 of their 18 away. Neither team is on top form and at the odds i can see Barnsley sneaking this one.
Blackburn have won 8 from 18 at home and are just too big a price at home against table toppers Leicester. Pinnacle go $3.0 draw no bet (0 handicap) which is also an option.
Brighton have won 4 of their last 6 at home but only managed 6 shots in each of the 2 most recent matches. Ipswich have drawn 8 of their 18 away fixtures so i’ve gone for the DNB option in backing them.
Charlton have been very well backed this week. I was hoping to get $4.0 but the $3.40 on offer still represents some value in my eyes. Charlton have won 2 of their last 3 at home and have not conceded in those matches while the numbers put up by Burnley are patchy enough to want to be with the home team.
Doncaster are my best bet of the weekend to beat Sheff Wed at home. A lot of people are talking up Wednesday as they have won 4 of their last 6 and beat QPR on Tuesday night. That win at QPR is not as impressive as it looks as QPR are badly out of form. Doncaster have won their last 2 and 4 of the last 6 at home while Wednesday have only won 3 times away all season.
I’ve backed Yeovil to beat Bolton and it’s hard to know what to expect from either team. Yeovil have won 4 at home from 18 and Bolton 5 from 18 away. Yeovil have won 2 of their last 3 homes, however, whereas Bolton have won just 1 of their last 7 away from home.
Coventry @ $6.47
Morecombe @ $2.86
York @ $2.75
Sydney to beat Brisbane tonight at $3.50 ($3.61 with 5dimes).
Sydney should take a lot of confidence from their win against WSW last weekend in the Sydney derby. Brisbane have been shaky away from home recently, scoring just once in the last 3 on the road (D2, L1).
I also quite like Wellington to beat Melbourne Heart on Sunday but i’m waiting for for the price. The Heart’s good run came to an end at the weekend when losing to the Jets while not managing a shot on target. They’ve won their last 5 at home so i expect Wellington’s price to drift a little from the $4.50 on offer now. You never know what you’re going to get with Wellington – they had 21 shots against perth on Sunday and beat Melbourne Victory 5-0 earlier in the season but also lost 5-0 at home to the Heart just a few weeks ago. Anything bigger than $4.0 will do on the Phoenix.
Bolton to beat Brighton at $2.56 (8.7% value). Bolton’s recent form and home form in particular has been very strong. I’ve found it hard to get Brighton right this season but recent away ratings of 9.75 and 7.25 against Watford and Millwall compared to Bolton’s last 2 at home of 23 and 29.5 gives me plenty of confidence that Bolton can get the job done.
The ratings point to 3 more Championship bets that i just cannot see winning. I’ll be having half stakes on Blackpool @ $11.4, Yeovil @ $8.0 and Barnsley @ 6.50.
Similarly, the ratings like Shrewsbury at Wolves in L1 so half a unit on them at $11. Wolves look invincible but at huge odds i don’t mind throwing a bit at Shrewsbury. Stranger things have happened.
There are quite a few possible bets in L2: that i’m as yet undecided about.
Wycombe – the only one i’ve backed so far, @ $3.95. Both teams are in good form but York have won 6 at home, Wycombe 5 away so at close to 3/1 Wycombe look a fair bet.
Birmingham at $3.75 to beat Burnley
Sheff Wed at $6.36 to beat Wigan
3 winners last night and a last minute equaliser foiling a 5/1 chance so maybe a good run of form is on its way.
Very quickly as I’m sorting out a winning placepot for day one at Cheltenham…
Doncaster @ 3.6
Barnsley @ 5.0
Bristol City @ 4.6
Port Vale @ 3.6
Swindon @ 4.9
Crewe @ 5.0
AFC Wimbledon @ 4.1
Exeter @ 2.6
Morecombe @ 3.0
I tried to put the UK bets up last night but wordpress wasn’t having any of it. I had 3 winners from 7 for around 2 units profit. Missed Millwall at Derby at $7 after talking myself out of it.
The last 2 A League bets have won at $7 and $3.65 so here’s a couple more.
Perth and Adelaide both at $5.50 today.