Blackpool @ $6.5 to win at Bolton
Leeds @ $8.5 to win at Watford
Both obviously big outsiders but look worth a punt at current prices. Middlesborough are also a bet on the ratings but i just can’t back them with their away form absolutely dismal.
I have started back testing the Premier League for 2013 and i’m only a month in but the numbers look promising so far. West Brom would have been a bet at $4 when they beat Chelsea and Norwich also a bet at $8 when they beat Man Utd on the same weekend.
I’ll report the full back testing figures on here for L1, L2 and the Premier League when i’ve completed the analysis. It will probably take a month or two.
Thanks to everyone who has followed or commented over the course of this season. I hope you all made a few quid.
Mark
Blackburn to beat Palace at $2.95 with 188bet or Betfair
Bristol City @ $3.1
Barnsley @ $3.13
Leeds @ $3.4
let’s hope we can snag a few winners before the end of the season.
thanks to all who emailed me regarding plans for next season. i think i replied to everyone but apologies if i missed anyone.
if you want to be kept in the loop, drop me a line at betdetective@gmail.com
cheers
Blackpool to beat Brighton at $4.33 with BetVictor
Palace to beat Leicester at $2.64 with Pinnacle
Bristol City to beat Hull at $10 with 365
If Charlton drift out to $2.45-$2.50 they might be a bet too.
Bristol City look a hopeless case against Hull having been relegated already but there’s a chance that they will relax and play an attacking game. They will want to give it a good go for the few travelling fans that make the long trip up north and i can’t make them any bigger than $7.0.
Palace have been beaten 4-0 and held to a goalless draw by Barnsley in their last 2 home games but their numbers have not been too bad, especially against Barnsley (when i was on Barnsley) where they had 23 shots with 12 on target + 9 corners. They should really have won that match by 2+ goals. Palace have won 12 times at home this season.
Palace play Leicester whose figures are pretty good for their recent away games but the results of the last 6 read D,L,L,D,L,D,L.
Blackpool’s numbers have been steady rather than spectacular but they are unbeaten in their last 4 away matches where they have let in a total of 4 goals. I make them a $3.30 shot so look like a fair bet at the $4.33 available.
There are only 4 matches remaining of the 2013 Championship season but it’s an indicator of just how competitive it’s been that all teams have something to play for, be it trying to avoid relegation or attempting to reach a play-off spot.
The 3 bets for the midweek fixtures are:
Charlton @ $5.25
Peterborough @ $3.0
Wolves @3.40
A heads-up about next season – i’ve done extensive back testing on League 1 and League 2 using my ratings and the results are good. I’ll be producing ratings on at least 3 divisions next season.
If you are interested in getting the recommended bets or the ratings, please email me at betdetective@gmail.com
There will be a small charge but i’m considering offering different levels such as A)recommended bets only B) a+ ratings c) a+b+prices d)all of the former + notes
I’m open to suggestions – email me!
thanks
I can’t understand the odds available on Birmingham to beat Leicester on Friday evening. I backed them at $5.50 and went in again at $6.28. They are $6.0 now and offer great value.
I priced the game at Leicester $2.20 Birmingham $3.90.
Leicester are rated 19 with a RFR of 15.5 while Birmingham’s rating is 13.1 with a RFR of 15.4.
My prices are based on overall ratings throughout the season so there’s plenty of value there without even going into the recent form.
Let’s look at it anyway:
Leicester have not won in their last 6 home and away games (drew 2, lost 4). Goal diff -5
Birmingham have won 3, drawn 2 and lost 1 of their last 6. Goal diff +6
Looking at home and away form as separate entities we can see that Leicester have lost their last 2 home matches to nil with ratings of 12 and 8.5.
Birmingham have won their last 2 away games to nil including 4-0 at Palace in their last match with ratings of 12.5 and 17.3.
Birmingham have averaged 2 goals per game over the last 6 away games – Leicester 1.2 goals in their last 6 home matches.
Birmingham look like one of the bets of the season and seeing as i’ve had 2 units on them i will count this as a 2 unit bet at $5.9.
On to Saturday and i like Bristol City at home to Bolton at $3.1 (betfred, 365, TOTE)
Bristol City have won 8 times at home this season, Bolton have won 3 times away.
That stat alone is enough for City to be under $3.0.
Over their last 4 home matches (won 2, drew 1, lost 1) City have averaged 13.25 shots with 9 of those on target. Bolton, in their last 4 away matches (won 2, lost 2) have averaged 8.5 shots with 6 on target.
A rare foray into the defensive stats shows City have let in 4 goals in those matches while Bolton have let in 8.
Ipswich play Hull having won their last 3 home games to nil. Hull have won their last 2 away games to nil also.
Just looking at those games, Ipswich have averaged 13.25 shots with 7.75 on target compared to 7 and 4.5 for Hull.
Hull beat Burnley and Huddersfield 1-0 while Ipswich beat Leicester 1-0, Bolton 1-0 and Leeds 3-0. I know which recent form lines i like best out of those two.
I make Ipswich a $2.0 chance and they are an obvious bet at $3.0 with VC.
Peterborough are also a bet at $3.02 with Pinnacle to beat Watford and i’m also pondering a bet on Middlesborough to beat Brighton but their recent form is terrible. If they hit $3.0 i’ll back them, if not i’ll let it go.
good luck
Bets: 169
Wins: 55
Strike Rate: 32.5%
Ave Odds (1×2 markets): $4.05
Profit: + 58.33 units
ROI: +34.5%
I recently mentioned that i’d not had a losing run of 10 bets all season. I have now.
| home | team | selection | odds | p/l | cum p/l | roi | |
| 29/09/12 | Bristol City | Leeds United | home | 2.50 | -1 | -1 | |
| 29/09/12 | Forest | Derby County | away | 4.00 | 3 | 2 | |
| 2/10/12 | Bristol City | Millwall | away | 3.25 | -1 | 1 | |
| 2/10/12 | Bristol City | Millwall | over 2.5g | 1.80 | -1 | 0 | |
| 2/10/12 | Huddersfield | Leicester | away | 2.43 | 1.43 | 2.43 | |
| 2/10/12 | Hull City | Blackpool | home | 2.37 | -1 | 1.43 | |
| 2/10/12 | wolves | Palace | away | 4.61 | 3.61 | 4.04 | |
| 3/10/12 | wolves | Palace | 1-0 CP | 13.00 | -0.5 | 3.54 | |
| 3/10/12 | Forest | Blackburn | away | 3.17 | -1 | 2.54 | |
| 6/10/12 | sheff wed | Hull City | home | 2.60 | -1.00 | ||
| 6/10/12 | birmingham | huddersfield | away | 3.50 | 2.60 | ||
| 6/10/12 | Blackburn | Wolves | away | 3.75 | 2.75 | ||
| 6/10/12 | Millwall | Bolton | away | 2.63 | -1.00 | ||
| 6/10/12 | Ipswich Town | Cardiff City | home | 3.10 | -1.00 | 4.89 | 34.9% |
| 20/10/12 | Birmingham City | Leicester City | away | 2.38 | -1 | ||
| 20/10/12 | Brighton | Middlesbrough | away | 4.80 | 3.8 | ||
| 20/10/12 | Hudds | Wolves | away | 2.89 | -1 | ||
| 20/10/12 | Nottingham Forest | Cardiff City | away | 3.1 | -1 | ||
| 20/10/12 | Burnley | Blackpool | home | 2.93 | 1.93 | 7.62 | 40 |
| 23/10/12 | Cardiff City | Watford | away | 5.5 | -1 | ||
| 23/10/12 | Leeds United | Charlton | away | 4.3 | -1 | ||
| 23/10/12 | Leicester City | Brighton | away | 4.33 | -1 | 4.62 | |
| 23/10/12 | Blackburn Rovers | Sheff Wed | away | 4 | -1 | 3.62 | |
| 26/10/12 | Blackburn Rovers | Watford | away | 4.33 | -1 | ||
| 26/10/12 | Millwall | hudds | home | 3.5 | -1 | ||
| 26/10/12 | Bristol City | Hull City | home | 3.15 | -1 | ||
| 26/10/12 | Cardiff City | Burnley | away | 5 | -1 | ||
| 26/10/12 | leicester | Crystal Palace | away | 7.12 | 6.12 | 20.5 | |
| 3/11/12 | Forest | Millwall | away | 4.5 | 3.5 | ||
| 3/11/12 | Birmingham | Ipswich Town | away | 4.3 | 3.3 | ||
| 3/11/12 | Burnley | Wolves | home | 2.6 | 1.6 | ||
| 3/11/12 | Derby County | Blackpool | home | 2.6 | 1.6 | 15.74 | |
| 3/11/12 | Huddersfield | Bristol City | away | 4.3 | -1 | 40.66 | |
| 6/11/12 | Birmingham | Bristol City | away | 4.75 | -1 | ||
| 6/11/12 | Burnley | Leeds United | home | 2.4 | 1.4 | ||
| 6/11/12 | Forest | Middlesbrough | away | 4.03 | -1 | ||
| 6/11/12 | Watford | Millwall | away | 3.2 | -1 | ||
| 6/11/12 | Brighton | Peterborough | away | 6.36 | -1 | 12.14 | 31.94 |
| 9/11/12 | Leicester | Forest | away | 4.62 | -1 | ||
| 9/11/12 | Leeds United | Watford | away | 3.75 | 2.75 | ||
| 9/11/12 | Middlesbrough | Sheff Wed | away | 4.8 | -1 | ||
| 9/11/12 | Peterborough | Palace | home | 3.19 | -1 | 11.89 | 28.30% |
| 17/11/12 | Forest | Sheff Wed | away | 4.2 | -1 | ||
| 17/11/12 | Peterborough | Blackburn | home | 3.43 | -1 | ||
| 17/11/12 | Leicester | Ipswich Town | away | 6.67 | -1 | ||
| 17/11/12 | Bristol City | Blackpool | home | 3.53 | -1 | 7.89 | 17.15% |
| 24/11/12 | Brighton | Bolton | away | 3.7 | -1 | ||
| 24/11/12 | Blackburn | Millwall | away | 3.8 | 2.8 | ||
| 24/11/12 | Hull City | Burnley | away | 5 | 4 | ||
| 24/11/12 | Forest | Sheff Wed | away | 3.75 | -1 | 12.69 | 25.38% |
| 28/11/12 | Blackburn | Bolton | away | 3.6 | 2.6 | 15.29 | |
| 1/12/12 | Watford | Barnsley | away | 5 | -1 | ||
| 1/12/12 | Leicester | Derby | away | 5.91 | -1 | ||
| 1/12/12 | Cardiff City | Sheff Wed | away | 5.7 | -1 | ||
| 1/12/12 | Millwall | Charlton | away | 3.83 | -1 | ||
| 1/12/12 | Burnley | Blackburn | home | 2.51 | -1 | ||
| 1/12/12 | Posh | Blackpool | home | 3.3 | -1 | ||
| 1/12/12 | Forest | Hull City | away | 3.2 | 2.2 | 11.49 | 19.81 |
| 8/12/12 | Leicester | Barnsley | away | 9.4 | -1 | ||
| 8/12/12 | Derby | Leeds United | home | 2.52 | 1.52 | ||
| 8/12/12 | Charlton | Brighton | home | 2.92 | -1 | ||
| 8/12/12 | Huddersfield | Bolton | away | 2.6 | -1 | ||
| 8/12/12 | Forest | Burnley | away | 3.75 | -1 | 9.01 | 14.3 |
| 15/12/12 | Hull City | huddersfield | away | 5.2 | -1 | ||
| 15/12/12 | Brighton | Forest | away | 4.1 | -1 | ||
| 15/12/12 | cardiff | Posh | away | 9.8 | 8.8 | ||
| 15/12/12 | Millwall | Leicester | home | 3.5 | 2.5 | 18.31 | 27.32 |
| 19/12/12 | Brighton | Millwall | away | 3.5 | -1 | ||
| 21/12/12 | Derby | Hull City | home | 2.63 | -1 | ||
| 22/12/12 | Leicester | Cardiff City | away | 3.95 | 3 | ||
| 22/12/12 | Millwall | Barnsley | away | 5.28 | 4.3 | ||
| 22/12/12 | Posh | Bolton | home | 3.62 | 2.6 | ||
| 22/12/12 | Palace | huddersfield | away | 5.3 | 4.3 | ||
| 26/12/12 | Wolves | Posh | away | 5 | 4 | 34.51 | 46.63 |
| 29/12/12 | huddersfield | sheff wed | away | 3.2 | -1 | ||
| 29/12/12 | Cardiff City | Millwall | away | 5 | -1 | ||
| 29/12/12 | Barnsley | Blackburn | home | 3.15 | -1 | ||
| 29/12/12 | Burnley | Leicester | home | 3.4 | -1 | ||
| 29/12/12 | Forest | Palace | away | 3.2 | -1 | ||
| 29/12/12 | Brighton | Watford | away | 3.95 | 2.95 | 32.46 | 40.57 |
| 6/01/00 | Birmingham | Cardiff | home | 3.83 | -1 | ||
| 1/01/13 | Blackpool | Hull City | home | 2.6 | -1 | ||
| 1/01/13 | Palace | Wolves | away | 4.3 | -1 | ||
| 1/01/13 | Derby | Middlesboro | home | 2.75 | 1.75 | ||
| 1/01/13 | Leeds | Bolton | away | 3.1 | -1 | ||
| 1/01/13 | Leicester | Huddersfield | away | 7.53 | -1 | ||
| 1/01/13 | Millwall | Bristol City | away | 6 | -1 | 28.21 | 32.4 |
| 12/01/13 | Forest | Posh | away | 5 | -1 | ||
| 12/01/13 | Cardiff | Ipswich | away | 6.4 | -1 | ||
| 12/01/13 | Brighton | Derby | away | 4.3 | -1 | ||
| 12/01/13 | Barnsley | Leeds | home | 3.2 | 2.25 | ||
| 12/01/13 | Bristol City | Leicester | home | 5.1 | -1 | ||
| 12/01/13 | Hull City | Sheff W | away | 5.5 | 4.8 | 31.26 | 33.6 |
| 19/01/13 | Palace | Bolton | away | 3.75 | -1 | ||
| 19/01/13 | Posh | Hull City | home | 3.4 | -1 | ||
| 19/01/13 | Ipswich | Barnsley | away | 4.2 | -1 | ||
| 19/01/13 | Leeds | Bristol City | away | 5 | -1 | ||
| 19/01/13 | Blackpool | Cardiff | home | 3 | -1 | 26.26 | 28.6 |
| 26/01/13 | Bristol City | Ipswich | 2.5g | 2 | -1 | ||
| 26/01/13 | Bristol City | Ipswich | home | 2.88 | 1.88 | ||
| 26/01/13 | Forest | Watford | away | 3.19 | 2.19 | 29.33 | |
| 29/01/13 | bristol city | watford | home | 3.71 | 2.71 | 32.04 | 31 |
| 2/02/13 | Blackburn | Bristol City | away | 5.7 | -1 | ||
| 2/02/13 | Blackpool | Barnsley | away | 5.5 | 4.5 | ||
| 2/02/13 | Palace | Charlton | away | 4.8 | -1 | ||
| 2/02/13 | Ipswich | Middlesboro | home | 2.98 | 1.98 | ||
| 2/02/13 | Posh | Burnley | home | 2.98 | -1 | ||
| 2/02/13 | Sheff W | Brighton | home | 3.05 | 2.05 | ||
| 2/02/13 | Watford | Bolton | away | 3.8 | -1 | 36.57 | 33.59 |
| 9/02/13 | Middlesboro | Barnsley | away | 4.5 | 3.5 | ||
| 9/02/13 | Bristol City | Forest | home | 3.02 | 2.02 | ||
| 9/02/13 | Huddersfield | Cardiff | home | 4.2 | -1 | ||
| 9/02/13 | Posh | Leicester | home | 5.5 | 4.5 | ||
| 9/02/13 | Wolves | Leeds | u2.5g | 1.97 | -1 | ||
| 9/02/13 | Huddersfield | Cardiff | u2.5g | 1.92 | 0.9 | 45.49 | 39.5 |
| 13/02/13 | Brighton | Blackburn | away | 3.64 | -1 | ||
| 13/02/13 | Middlesboro | Leeds | home | 2.2 | 1.2 | 45.69 | |
| 16/02/13 | Cardiff | Bristol City | away | 7.5 | -1 | ||
| 16/02/13 | Palace | Middlesboro | away | 3.8 | -1 | ||
| 16/02/13 | Derby | Wolves | home | 2.08 | -1 | ||
| 16/02/13 | Forest | Bolton | away | 3.3 | -1 | ||
| 16/02/13 | Cardiff | Bristol City | cs 1-0 | 22 | -1 | 40.69 | 33.3 |
| 19/02/13 | Millwall | Posh | away | 4.5 | 3.5 | ||
| 19/02/13 | Forest | Huddersfield | away | 5.47 | -1 | ||
| 19/02/13 | Ipswich | Watford | home | 2.94 | -1 | ||
| 19/02/13 | Palace | Bristol City | away | 5.95 | -1 | ||
| 19/02/13 | Leicester | Charlton | away | 7 | 6 | ||
| 23/02/13 | Blackpool | Leicester | home | 3.1 | -1 | ||
| 23/02/13 | Bolton | Hull City | home | 2.75 | 1.75 | ||
| 23/02/13 | Posh | Birmingham | home | 2.52 | -1 | ||
| 23/02/13 | Middlesboro | Millwall | away | 3.77 | 2.77 | ||
| 23/02/13 | Wolves | Cardiff | home | 3.4 | -1 | ||
| 26/02/13 | Leicester | Blackburn | away | 5.8 | -1 | ||
| 26/02/13 | bolton | posh | away | 5.34 | -1 | ||
| 2/03/13 | Leeds | Millwall | away | 3.8 | -1 | ||
| 2/03/13 | Ipswich | Leicester | home | 3.56 | 2.56 | ||
| 2/03/13 | Hull City | Birmingham | away | 5.3 | -1 | ||
| 1/03/13 | Derby | Palace | home | 2.7 | -1 | ||
| 2/03/13 | Brighton | Huddersfield | away | 6.15 | -1 | ||
| 2/03/13 | Blackburn | Posh | away | 4.5 | 3.5 | ||
| 2/03/13 | Charlton Athletic | Burnley | home | 2.75 | -1 | ||
| 2/03/13 | Middlesboro | Cardiff | home | 3.1 | 2.1 | 49.87 | 35.1 |
| 5/03/13 | Bristol City | Brighton | home | 3.45 | -1 | ||
| 5/03/13 | Burnley | Barnsley | away | 4.5 | -1 | ||
| 5/03/13 | Watford | Sheff W | away | 5.5 | -1 | ||
| 10/03/13 | Bristol City | Middlesboro | home | 2.8 | 1.8 | ||
| 10/03/13 | Huddersfield | Charlton Athletic | away | 3.3 | 2.3 | ||
| 10/03/13 | Leicester | Sheff W | away | 6.25 | 5.25 | ||
| 10/03/13 | Forest | Wolves | away | 4.88 | -1 | ||
| 10/03/13 | Posh | Ipswich | home | 2.52 | -1 | ||
| 10/03/13 | Watford | Blackpool | away | 4.5 | 3.5 | 57.72 | 38.2 |
| 16/03/13 | Barnsley | Watford | home | 3.22 | 2.22 | ||
| 16/03/13 | Derby | Leicester | home | 3.3 | 2.3 | ||
| 16/03/13 | Sheff W | Cardiff | home | 3.2 | -1 | ||
| 16/03/13 | Derby | Leicester | 3-0 | 60 | -0.5 | ||
| 16/03/13 | Derby | Leicester | 3-1 | 34 | -0.5 | 60.24 | 38.6 |
| 30/03/13 | Leicester | Millwall | away | 5.8 | 4.8 | ||
| 30/03/13 | Posh | Cardiff | home | 3.29 | 2.29 | ||
| 30/03/13 | Sheff W | Barnsley | away | 3.3 | -1 | 66.33 | 41.70% |
| 2/04/13 | Middlesboro | Posh | away | 4.1 | -1 | ||
| 2/04/13 | Bolton | Huddersfield | away | 5.5 | -1 | 68.15 | |
| 6/04/13 | Palace | Barnsley | away | 5 | -1 | ||
| 6/04/13 | Birmingham | Millwall | away | 3.4 | -1 | ||
| 6/04/13 | Huddersfield | Posh | away | 3.3 | -1 | ||
| 6/04/13 | Forest | Blackpool | away | 4.21 | -1 | 60.33 | |
| 6/04/13 | hudd | posh | CS 0-1 | $13 | -0.5 | ||
| 7/04/13 | hudd | posh | CS – 0-2 | $21 | -0.5 | ||
| 6/04/13 | hudd | posh | 2.5g – under | 2.04 | -1 | 58.33 | 34.50% |
